by Pollwatcher

One of the themes of the coming US election is going to be hidden Trump voters. 

In fact, because of the reluctance of voters to say they are voting for Trump, the polls that are generally quoted are almost worthless. 

But why exactly are Trump supporters so reluctant to tell pollsters how they are going to vote? Are they ashamed of their choice? Is it some kind of dirty secret?

No, there are two main reasons for this reticence. 

Firstly, the rise of Leftist hysteria means that Trump supporters and in fact anyone on the Right is worried about becoming a target. There are countless examples of Leftist violence and attempts to have people fired for their political views. 

Secondly, fewer people than ever believe that pollsters will protect the privacy of any data given. It is now clear that data -- any kind of data -- is widely harvested by various companies. This is especially noticeable on social media. Type a search for something and watch "miraculously" as that item or something connected to it pops up in your ads. 

Furthermore, compared to the losers who vote for the Left, Right wingers tend to have property and nice cars, etc., things that can be vandalised. They also tend to have jobs they don't want to lose and families they don't want to see harmed. If saying you are a Trump voter is a threat to any of these from Leftist nutjobs, then you are likely to be reluctant to let pollsters know your voting preference. In fact, one of the best ways to avoid vandalism in modern-day America is to put a "Black Lives Matter" sign on your lawn.

So, how big a factor is the hidden Trump voter?

Polling company CloudResearch recently attempted to research this, but, remember, the very thing that they were trying to research would hinder the accuracy of their research, so bear that in mind. 

They "found" that Trump supporters were “significantly more reluctant to share their opinions on phone surveys compared to Biden supporters.” 

Republicans (11.7%) and Independents (10.5%) were nearly twice as reticent about sharing voting intentions as Democrats (5.4%). 

If these rather conservative figures are accurate -- the likelihood is that they are under-counting -- then this would give Trump an extra 3% that the polls are simply not picking up. 

Also, there is considerable evidence that many polls are "cooked" in an attempt to depress the Trump vote by purposely under-counting it. The most accurate or sincere major poll seems to be Rasmussen's, which is currently giving Biden a 1% lead (48% to 47% with 3% to other parties and 2% undecided). Add in the hidden Trump vote and that turns into a +2% Trump lead. 

Also, remember that Trump beat Hillary with minus 2% in the popular vote thanks to the Electoral College. 

This means that Trump is heading for a victory larger than the one in 2016. 

Also, what about the massive enthusiasm gap. Saying you "will vote" and actually voting are two different things. While Trump has the highest in-party support ever among Republican voters ever, Joe Biden is regarded with lukewarm support or even bewilderment by most Dems. Come election day are they really going to come out and vote for him? My guess is that many won't bother.

Based on all this, I would guess that Trump is heading to a 55%/45% split with Biden, if we exclude minor candidates. On these numbers, even with massive voter fraud and legal shenanigans, it is going to be hard to cheat Trump of victory.

Also published at Democracy NOW!

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