Before turning specifically to the 2020 election, it is important to note that election fraud is not unheard of in the United States. This is worth establishing because if we think election fraud almost never happens then we will have a higher bar of evidence for the justification of any particular claim of fraud.
The piece even went as far as to cast doubt on the 2000 US presidential election results on the basis of such concerns:
“Voting by mail is now common enough and problematic enough that election experts say there have been multiple elections in which no one can say with confidence which candidate was the deserved winner. The list includes the 2000 presidential election, in which problems with absentee ballots in Florida were a little-noticed footnote to other issues…Voting by mail also played a crucial role in the 2000 presidential election in Florida, when the margin between George W. Bush and Al Gore was razor thin and hundreds of absentee ballots were counted in apparent violation of state law. The flawed ballots, from Americans living abroad, included some without postmarks, some postmarked after the election, some without witness signatures, some mailed from within the United States and some sent by people who voted twice. All would have been disqualified had the state’s election laws been strictly enforced.” – Liptak (2012)
Similarly, in December of 2016 a majority (52%) of democrats agreed with the statement “Russia tampered with vote tallies in order to get Donald Trump elected President” (YouGov, 2016).
So being worried about voter fraud, and even suggesting it could alter the results of a US presidential election, is not outside the norm of US politics.
Before, I said that there are roughly 1,200 known cases of recent American voter fraud. Of course, this doesn’t tell us how common voter fraud really is because it could be that the vast majority of instances are never detected. County level analysis shows that there are at least 1.8 million excess registered voters relative to the eligible population size and this at least opens the door for the possibility of voter fraud on a truly massive scale (Judicial Watch, 2020).
More importantly, non-citizens in America report voting at rates that imply at least nearly a million cases of voter fraud per year. This suggests that only a tiny proportion of the voter fraud that takes place is normally caught and that fraud at a scale that can change elections is actually the norm. Of course, these figures leave out voter fraud not involving immigrants, and so is surely a significant under estimation of the total amount of fraud that takes place.
Read the full article at Ideas and Data
Archived version available here
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