Not too long ago, Stratfor released one their usual forecasts on long term trends and possible events affecting the entire world. With regards to Europe, this is what they have to say:
“The diversity of systems and demographics that is Europe will put the European Union's institutions under severe strain. We suspect the institutions will survive. We doubt that they will work very effectively. The main political tendency will be away from multinational solutions to a greater nationalism driven by divergent and diverging economic, social and cultural forces. The elites that have crafted the European Union will find themselves under increasing pressure from the broader population. The tension between economic interests and cultural stability will define Europe. Consequently, inter-European relations will be increasingly unpredictable and unstable.”And then for the United States:
“The United States will continue to be the major economic, political and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past. Its low rate of exports, its increasing energy self-reliance and its experiences over the last decade will cause it to be increasingly cautious about economic and military involvement in the world. It has learned what happens to heavy exporters when customers cannot or will not buy their products. It has learned the limits of power in trying to pacify hostile countries. It has learned that North America is an arena in which it can prosper with selective engagements elsewhere. It will face major strategic threats with proportional power, but it will not serve the role of first responder as it has in recent years.”Conclusions, like these, are certainly interesting, and may even be greeted with joy and enthusiasm by nationalists and dissidents from different races and backgrounds. However, it is important to remember that such predictions are also often associated with notions of Western decline by ordinary people. An increasingly isolationist Western World is usually interpreted as one that is stagnating or going downhill.
