Things are hotting up in the Ukraine. After earlier gains by the Ukrainian army, the pro-Russian rebels have successfully counter-attacked. They have reportedly recaptured Lugansk airport, and have even opened a new front further South near the Sea of Azov, where the city of Mariupol seems to be threatened.
Of course what has happened is that, following earlier setbacks for the rebels, Putin has slowly turned up the dial of Russian military support, either in the shape of more or better weapons or "special volunteers" – probably both. It's not unlikely that a stray column of tanks may have crossed the border as well.
The pattern the war has been developing in recent month reveals very clearly the kind of game Putin is playing, and also how it is likely to play out.
