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Thursday, 9 January 2020

TRUMP GETS MORE MONEY FOR HIS WALL, BUT HOW MANY MILES ARE WE GETTING?

by Peter Anderson

Trump has finally managed to squeeze some more money out of a roadblocked political system for his main 2016 campaign promise, namely to build a wall:
A federal appeals court allowed the administration to use a certain set of Defense Department funds for the construction of the border wall after a lower court blocked the administration from dipping into them last month.

The ruling marks a victory for President Donald Trump, who has sought to shore up funds for his signature border wall. The money is separate from other funds that the Supreme Court allowed to be used last year...

The latest ruling applies to the military construction funds. Last September, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper authorized diverting $3.6 billion in the construction funds for 11 wall projects on the southern border with Mexico. The Pentagon said at the time that half the money was coming from deferred projects overseas, and the other half was planned for projects in the US.
It is not yet known if another way will be found to block this money, but, assuming a best case scenario, this money should see some new wall being built. The question is how much.

Back in February last year Trump managed to get a measly $1.4 billion in wall funding from Congress after ending a 35-day government shutdown. Most of this was used up replacing and improving already existing walls and fences.

This led Trump to look for more money elsewhere, namely in Defense Department spending, leading to an obstacle course of legal challenges. In July he managed to get a positive Supreme Court ruling on $2.5 billion from the Defense Department's counter-narcotics funding. It was reported at the time that this would be used to build 100 miles of wall, which works out at $25 million per mile, a costing we will use for other parts of the wall. It is not yet clear if that part of the wall has been built, but if that money does in fact fund 100 miles of wall, the new amount of $3.6 billion should pay for 144 miles of wall.

So, how much total wall are we looking at with all the spending that Trump appears to have procured? In January 2019 Fox 47 reported the following:
The US-Mexico border stretches for 1,954 miles. Currently, physical barriers cover 654 of those miles, according to US Customs and Border Protection.

What's known as vehicle fencing covers 280 miles. This is fencing that's low to the ground. It would stop a car, but people can easily step over it.

What's known as pedestrian fencing covers some 374 miles. This is taller and designed to block people from crossing on foot.
I make that:
  • 374 miles of pre-existing wall/ pedestrian-proof fencing
  • 280 miles of car-proof fencing
  • 1,300 miles of completely open border
Going by our rate of $25 million a mile, the $1.4 billion of actual wall funding could only upgrade 56 miles of fence into walls at the most. Of course, it might actually have been used for other spending, like repairing old wall/ pedestrian fencing, improving roads or purchasing surveillance equipment, etc., but if we generously assume it all went to replacing fencing with wall, we now get:
  • 430 miles of new and pre-existing wall/ pedestrian-proof fencing
  • 224 miles of car-proof fencing
  • 1,300 miles of completely open border
Next, if we optimistically assume that the $2.5 billion in redirected Defense Department anti-narcotics spending and the $3.6 billion in redirected Defense Department construction spending was only used to build new wall at the rate of one mile per $25 million dollars per mile, then that gives us another 244 miles of wall, giving us the following totals:
  • 674 miles of new and pre-existing wall/ pedestrian-proof fencing
  • 224 miles of car-proof fencing
  • 1,056 miles of completely open border
So, by the end of Trump's first term in office, assuming everything now goes to plan and being generous in our estimates, it looks like the length of completely open border will still be over 1000 miles or 54% of the total.

So much winning!

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