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Monday 3 April 2017

WELCOME TO THE NEW ROCKY EUROPE AND WHY THAT'S (PROBABLY) A GOOD THING

Meet the New Europe, same as the old one.


The great thing about BREXIT are the unforeseen consequences. Nobody can really be sure of what the ultimate outcome of that historic vote by the British people will be. But one result seems to be a revival of inter-European rivalry, something that has both a good and bad side. 

On the plus side it strengthens identity, but on the negative side it might even see a return of military conflict between some European nations. This too is not necessarily a bad thing, as long as the causality count is low. This is because it will stimulate a more masculine and militaristic culture in the various European nations that will have enormous benefits for societies that are incredibly "cucked" and "feminized" at the moment. (Being Alt-Right means being able to take a wider view of things).

The first example of BREXIT leading in this direction is the growing rift between Spain and Britain over Gibraltar, which has now also become mixed up with issues of Scottish and Catalan secession.

Gibraltar is a tiny territory on the Southern tip of Spain that has been held by Britain since it was seized in 1704 during the War of the Spanish Succession. British possession has been recognised by treaty, although the Spanish have long been pushing Britain to renege on the treaties and return the territory to Spain. Back in the 1960s General Franco angrily closed the border after Britain used a democratic referendum in the territory to "delegitimize" Franco's claim on the territory.

When post-Franco Spain wanted to join the EU in the 1980s, they had to play nice and reopen the border because Britain was in a position to veto their admission. But now, following Brexit, the Spanish see a path to regaining the territory by supporting the break up of the UK along the lines of those territories that voted "Leave" versus those that voted "Remain."

England and Wales voted to leave, but Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar voted to remain. This difference in voting patterns has seen an attempt by the Scottish National Party to hold yet another referendum on Scottish independece. The Spanish think if this were to prove successful, then something similar could happen with Gibraltar, where the vast majority voted to remain.

Gibraltar is actually the right vertical line in the dollar symbol. 
During the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, Spain strongly opposed Scottish independence, and even said that it would block an independent Scotland joining the EU. This undoubtedly had some influence on the result. Spain's reason was to dissuade its own breakaway region Catalonia from following Scotland, as a lot of sympathy and synergy had started to emerge between the two campaigns.

Now Spain has done a complete reversal, with the Spanish foreign minister, Alfonso Dastis, saying that his government will no longer block an EU membership bid by an independent Scotland. This is considered to be a big boost to the SNP, although such an analysis overstates the popularity of EU membership among Scots, who are viewing the fast-changing post-Brexit landscape in a pragmatic way. 

More significantly, this move by the Spanish is being seen by some in Britain as a hostile act, with an almost jingoistic response by parts of the media. But even government ministers have been making "uncompromising" statements. When asked about the situation, Sir Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, said that Britain would go "all the way" to protect Gibraltar. Lord Howard, a former Conservative Party leader, drew a comparison with the Argentine seizure of the Falklands during the Prime Ministership of Margaret Thatcher, saying that Theresa May would show the "same resolve" over Gibraltar as Thatcher did over the Falklands.

1982
Theresa May's own statement, passed on to the media via a spokesman, was also red meat for the war hawks: "
"The Prime Minister said we will never enter into arrangements under which the people of Gibraltar would pass under the sovereignty of another state against their freely and democratically expressed wishes, nor will we ever ­enter into a process of sovereignty ­negotiations with which Gibraltar is not content."
Waving the flag and banging the drum in this way is good politics, bolstering support for the government, while reminding the Europeans of Britain's traditional role of disrupting their schemes and setting them at each other's throats.

It also serves to remind Europeans that Britain is still a significant and generally effective military power, at least compared to the pathetic military establishments of most European nations. This is not so much a threat as a bargaining chip, with Britain hoping to offer military cooperation with the EU in return for trade and business concessions. This move has added weight because Trump has been criticising EU countries for not paying their way when it comes to defence.

But who knows where such posturing might lead? Right now the EU is a mish-mash of centripetal and centrifugal forces, a volatile cocktail of dynamic emotions that could easily translate into nationalistic and identitarian forces. 

As we in the Alt-Right know only too well, every effort is made to stop European people thinking nationalistically when the invaders happen to be teeming hordes of military-age Muslim men or other non-Whites, even when this leads to a sharp up-tick in sexual assaults. But, conversely, there seem to be few restrictions on thinking and feeling nationalistically vis-a-vis one's fellow Europeans. The EU has been successful in dampening down this sort of nationalistic expression, but Brexit and the angry spat over Gibraltar suggest that cracks may now be beginning to open up.

In an ideal world, Europeans would think nationalistically and also in a way that served our collective Pan-European interests. But human nature has its limitations, and this kind of idealistic identitarianism, which sounds great in articles or podcasts, is unlikely to come fully formed into the World.

To get there we will probably need to go down a path peppered with jingoism and a bit of inter-European rivalry, and, who knows, even some violence. But if that is what it takes to get Europeans thinking nationalistically, then a little bit of jingoism, dangerous as it is, may be the best thing, so "Damn those dastardly Spaniards! Have at 'em, boys!"

The British crushing the Spaniards at the Siege of Gibraltar.

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