I like to stick to my predictions. Otherwise what's the point of making them? So, when I said Marine Le Pen would win the French Presidential Election some weeks ago, I stuck to my guns, even as the polls continued to show a massive gap.
This was because all the ingredients of a Le Pen win were there, and continued to be there —and still are!—while all that could be said for Macron is that he is a belated French version of Tony Blair and Barack Obama. My mistake was believing in French cynicism. I was disappointed to find that they were not cynical enough to see through such an obvious ploy. In future I will be more cynical about French cynicism.
The big question for me is not whether Le Pen—or someone like her—will win in the next decade or two. I believe that will definitely come to pass. Instead it is whether that will be enough to save France. I have strong doubts that it will, doubts I expressed back in 2012, when I wrote "The Death of France."
But on the more basic question of whether Le Pen will be elected President, the outlook has to be positive. Although this election may seem like a setback, it was anything but. Le Pen got over a third of the vote. This included 44% of the 18-24 demographic, and if you were to sort that by race, it would go up by at least another 20 points for Whites of that age group. Unlike other countries the nationalist vote in France is youthful. Macron by contrast scored 80% of the over-65 vote [insert joke about Macron's wife here].
There is a lot of talk that Le Pen should have done better, especially with all the jihad that France has seen in recent years. That is true, but don't let it get in the way of how well she actually did do.
She got 11 million votes, way above the 7.6 million votes her party achieved in the 2015 regional vote, and double what her father got in the second round of the 2002 Presidential Election. 53% of the working class voted for her, including 63% of agricultural workers, and we know that the police and probably the army are solidly behind her. In short, this is not just "progress" but a major advance.
Also promising is the political landscape going forward. Macron comes in effectively as a "lame duck" President, with #MacronLeaks hanging over him. In order to get even this far, he had to "distance" himself from the old establishment parties, which means that he also has no political base in the French parliament. Unless he is the best deal maker ever, he is riding into the most ineffectual Presidency ever, and at a time when the forces of malcontent are surging on every side. It seems that the last card the establishment decided to play turned out to be the Joker.
On Le Pen's side, there is plenty that is positive. This campaign has effectively detoxified the Front National brand. When her father got through to the final round in 2002 the country went into national mourning and there were emotive mass demonstrations against him. Not so this time. Marine is now seen as a legitimate choice for French voters, and, as we saw when she was mobbed by enthusiastic workers at the Whirlpool factory in Amiens, people are proud to associate with her.
This is why genuine Gaullist offshoot parties like Debout la France (DLF) and Union Populaire Républicaine (UPR) are now interested in working with her, and possibly merging to make a new Patriotic Party, one that would also allow her to shed the remaining "negative baggage" of the Front National.
It is clear that the Front National already has a strong appeal to Leftists. This can only increase if Le Pen is seen as the main opposition to a public-sector-cutting Macron. She also has a natural and logical appeal to the conservatives of Fillon's Les Republicans, although this was largely offset by boomerist stupidity in this election. But that is soft rock that can easily be eroded.
In Merkel and Macron, the EU is now under the kind of management that can only exacerbate its many problems. These include various budgetary and economic problems, as well as the migrant invasion. These are problems that put increasing pressure on the political architecture of the EU.
Dysfunction and racial polarization can only grow in the years ahead. All those nice, cozy parts of France, where people voted for Macron because they lacked direct experience of the migrant flood, are going to learn things the hard way.
The 2017 election could very well be the last election in which one bunch of White people (cosmopolitans, boomers, and naive inhabitants of remote Whitopias) campaign against another bunch of White people (economically blighted youth and working class people living in or near "enriched" neighbourhoods), while non-Whites wait in the wings and look on.
In the years ahead, political battles will increasingly take on the hues of the discordant races and cultures thrown together by the failed multicultural experiment that is France.
This was because all the ingredients of a Le Pen win were there, and continued to be there —and still are!—while all that could be said for Macron is that he is a belated French version of Tony Blair and Barack Obama. My mistake was believing in French cynicism. I was disappointed to find that they were not cynical enough to see through such an obvious ploy. In future I will be more cynical about French cynicism.
The big question for me is not whether Le Pen—or someone like her—will win in the next decade or two. I believe that will definitely come to pass. Instead it is whether that will be enough to save France. I have strong doubts that it will, doubts I expressed back in 2012, when I wrote "The Death of France."
But on the more basic question of whether Le Pen will be elected President, the outlook has to be positive. Although this election may seem like a setback, it was anything but. Le Pen got over a third of the vote. This included 44% of the 18-24 demographic, and if you were to sort that by race, it would go up by at least another 20 points for Whites of that age group. Unlike other countries the nationalist vote in France is youthful. Macron by contrast scored 80% of the over-65 vote [insert joke about Macron's wife here].
There is a lot of talk that Le Pen should have done better, especially with all the jihad that France has seen in recent years. That is true, but don't let it get in the way of how well she actually did do.
She got 11 million votes, way above the 7.6 million votes her party achieved in the 2015 regional vote, and double what her father got in the second round of the 2002 Presidential Election. 53% of the working class voted for her, including 63% of agricultural workers, and we know that the police and probably the army are solidly behind her. In short, this is not just "progress" but a major advance.
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| Macron: receptacle for the despicable. |
On Le Pen's side, there is plenty that is positive. This campaign has effectively detoxified the Front National brand. When her father got through to the final round in 2002 the country went into national mourning and there were emotive mass demonstrations against him. Not so this time. Marine is now seen as a legitimate choice for French voters, and, as we saw when she was mobbed by enthusiastic workers at the Whirlpool factory in Amiens, people are proud to associate with her.
This is why genuine Gaullist offshoot parties like Debout la France (DLF) and Union Populaire Républicaine (UPR) are now interested in working with her, and possibly merging to make a new Patriotic Party, one that would also allow her to shed the remaining "negative baggage" of the Front National.
It is clear that the Front National already has a strong appeal to Leftists. This can only increase if Le Pen is seen as the main opposition to a public-sector-cutting Macron. She also has a natural and logical appeal to the conservatives of Fillon's Les Republicans, although this was largely offset by boomerist stupidity in this election. But that is soft rock that can easily be eroded.
In Merkel and Macron, the EU is now under the kind of management that can only exacerbate its many problems. These include various budgetary and economic problems, as well as the migrant invasion. These are problems that put increasing pressure on the political architecture of the EU.
Dysfunction and racial polarization can only grow in the years ahead. All those nice, cozy parts of France, where people voted for Macron because they lacked direct experience of the migrant flood, are going to learn things the hard way.
The 2017 election could very well be the last election in which one bunch of White people (cosmopolitans, boomers, and naive inhabitants of remote Whitopias) campaign against another bunch of White people (economically blighted youth and working class people living in or near "enriched" neighbourhoods), while non-Whites wait in the wings and look on.
In the years ahead, political battles will increasingly take on the hues of the discordant races and cultures thrown together by the failed multicultural experiment that is France.
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| Unfinished business... |
It was the berets, white and black striped shirts, neck scarves, pencil thin mustaches, Gauloises and Gitanes, Jerry Lewis, and accordion music that destroyed the French male! As opposed to getting their butts kicked for the last 150 years. Over 200 years and they still can't see what BS Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite was and is. Their vanity won't allow them to wake up.
ReplyDeleteLiberty, equality, and fraternity are not negative concepts and should be protected from those who seek to undermine them, be they Islamic, far-left, or far-right.
DeleteHow do you mean?
DeleteThe secret manifesto!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.therebel.media/macronleaks_reveal_islamization_plans
A gathering of Globalists
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3508928/new-french-president-emmanuel-macron-starts-plan-to-drag-bankers-from-london-to-paris-after-brexit/
Excellent analysis. I have looked on the positive side of this too. She didn't win, but she went farther than anyone would have guessed 10 years ago. She is IN THE RUNNING!
ReplyDeleteIt will come to pass. Will it be enough, on time? That depends on whether she sticks to her culturist anti-Islam guns, or starts to speak in dissembling bureaucratese, like our Donald "It's not a Muslim ban" Trump.
getting their butts kicked for the last 150 years
ReplyDeleteThat's wrong. First, the French did win the Great War (with help from others, but it's not like the US could've won that war all alone), and they had very dangerous neighbors (like Prussia combined with the forces of Russia and the UK in 1814, then again Prussia and the UK in 1815, then Prussia and other German states in 1870, then imperial Germany in 1914, then Nazi Germany in 1940) - I wonder how long the US could've survived such dangerous neighbors.
The French are in a similar predicament as the US and the UK and Germany and the rest of the Western world. This "Freedom Fries - the French are pussies, ha!" meme needs to die.
Electoral victory will eventually come, but not in time to save France. Time to sit back and enjoy the movie 'Day of the Jackal' (1973). We can learn a lot. Let's get it right next time!
ReplyDeleteG.
Hello quit being this harsh: all the 3rd world vermin is allowed to VOTE!! French elections are RIGGED! Quit being an ass who propagates LIES and FRANCOPHOBIA!!! We are oppressed. Ever hear of hate speech laws? Go to Yahoo.fr, look at the comments: if you post the TRUE FACTS about sand niggers, your IP is culled AND YOU ARE JAILED FOR YEARS!!
ReplyDeletePlease stop hating us: your Hollywood is riddled with FRANCOPHOBIA because YOU ARE COWARDS who won't speak the truth about wetbacks and niggers do u take it out on the French. There are thousands of FRANCOPHOBES films hauling from USA. Guess how many French films portray Americans as retarded, inept morons? Zippo! We are always the villain and u mock us on basis of MSINFORMATION and culture clashes!!! Fair, you think?
Ne m'appelez plus JAMAIS France, la France elle m'a laissée tomber! :-/
Everyone who is trying to turn the result of the French presidential election into some kind of victory for Le Pen is crazy. The woman was crushed: nearly two-thirds of the voters voted against her.
ReplyDeleteThe French, like most Europeans, are much less likely to vote for parties and candidates that are branded as extreme than voters in the English speaking world. For most Europeans, individualism is not a virtue but a vice and going against the herd is not just frowned upon, it is punished.
Will the French ever elect an avowedly nationalist government? Doubtful, especially given that with every election cycle the number of Muslim voters grows.