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| Game of Thrones or Dame of Groans? |
Like many people, I have been underestimating British Prime Minister Theresa May.
OK, maybe she's not so bright, but there is definitely a dark genius, scheming in the shadows behind her, a Svengali figure, who controls her. Because, going by today's news, she has just pulled off a quite remarkable coup.
The headlines are all about May having to face a snap leadership election, triggered by the Conservative Party's backbencher 1922 Committee receiving 48 letters from conservative MPs calling for a leadership contest.
Sorry to bore you with Conservative Party constitutional detail, but unfortunately it is part of the story here. The 1922 Committee is a lobby group made up of all Conservative MPs not in actual ministerial positions. As such, it tends to be closer to the party's grassroots when the Tories are in power, and Tory governments require its support.
For several months there has been talk of MPs sending letters to the 1922 Committee demanding a vote of no-confidence in May's leadership and plenty of speculation about whether the magic number of 48 had been reached or not. The insider, smart, non-conspiracy theory consensus was that the number has been quite close to 48 for some time but that several Brexit-supporting MPs were still taking a wait-and-see approach, waiting for a moment when they could be sure to defeat the Prime Minister in a leadership contest, because if they don't they would have to wait another year before challenging her again.
Now, suddenly, shortly before Xmas, a few more letters appear and push the number over the 48 line. Interesting!
There are two possibilities here:
My guess is that the MPs genuinely dissatisfied with May's leadership had either shot their bolt already and had sent in their letters, or were waiting for her failure or betrayal of Brexit to be more apparent before triggering a vote of no-confidence.
Sending in their letters now doesn't really make sense, as everything is still in limbo. May has been pushing, with apparent sincerity, a Brexit plan that is generally not too bad from a Brexiteer point of view, except for the problem of the Northern Irish Backstop.
This is essentially a backup plan to ensure that, in the event of trade negotiations between Britain and the EU breaking down, trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will not be affected by a "hard border." The way in which this would be done would be to automatically keep Northern Ireland (and thus probably the rest of the UK) in the EU Customs Union, while trade discussions continued. This would also mean that Britain's trade would effectively be controlled by Brussels for the duration of the Backstop.
This is supposed to be "merely" a possible and, in that case, a temporary solution to safeguard the Republic of Ireland from Brexit disruption and also "ensure peace" in Northern Ireland. But because of unclear language in the Brexit treaty, which seems to suggests the Backstop could only be ended with the agreement of the EU, Brexiteers view it as a mechanism for the EU to hold Britain indefinitely in a Customs Union and exert leverage on trade negotiations.
May's recent decision to cancel a Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal was caused by concerns over this Backstop arrangement among Conservative Party backbenchers, while her recent trips to Europe were to push the EU and its leaders to clarify that the backstop would not be used in this way.
If she could get this, then there is a possibility that a lot of the Brexiteers in her party would be mollified and view her deal as the "least worst" realistic option. Right now, it is not clear if this is the case. In other words the Brexiteers in her party can't be sure if she has f**ked up on Brexit yet. So, it is too early for them to make their move to replace her as leader.
But also it is too late because the political year will soon stop for Christmas and having a leadership contest, which could take two or three weeks out of the 15 or so weeks before Brexit, would only add to the chaos. Such chaos could also lead to a general election being held smack bang up against the Brexit date of the 29th of March. Conservative MPs generally have disdain for such unruly proceedings and tend to act in a small-C conservative way in such situations.
The only conditions under which a no-confidence vote and a leadership contest would be acceptable to most of them would be if Theresa May's Brexit plan had been decisively defeated by a parliamentary vote, or by a further resounding slap in the face from the EU.
By delaying the parliamentary vote until sometime next year and by keeping alive the slim possibility that the EU will clarify things to the satisfaction of Tory backbenchers, May and her handlers have avoided these two conditions.
And now it looks like they have sent in their own votes to trigger a leadership election at a time of their own choosing, one which, if they win—as I predict they will—should lock her into the leadership position for another full year, a year which promises to be the most important year ever in Britain's post war history. By the end of that year we will have a very clear idea of what their agenda was all along.
The headlines are all about May having to face a snap leadership election, triggered by the Conservative Party's backbencher 1922 Committee receiving 48 letters from conservative MPs calling for a leadership contest.
Sorry to bore you with Conservative Party constitutional detail, but unfortunately it is part of the story here. The 1922 Committee is a lobby group made up of all Conservative MPs not in actual ministerial positions. As such, it tends to be closer to the party's grassroots when the Tories are in power, and Tory governments require its support.
For several months there has been talk of MPs sending letters to the 1922 Committee demanding a vote of no-confidence in May's leadership and plenty of speculation about whether the magic number of 48 had been reached or not. The insider, smart, non-conspiracy theory consensus was that the number has been quite close to 48 for some time but that several Brexit-supporting MPs were still taking a wait-and-see approach, waiting for a moment when they could be sure to defeat the Prime Minister in a leadership contest, because if they don't they would have to wait another year before challenging her again.
Now, suddenly, shortly before Xmas, a few more letters appear and push the number over the 48 line. Interesting!
There are two possibilities here:
- These were letters from Conservative MPs genuinely dissatisfied with Theresa May's leadership
- These were letters from Conservative MPs who are not dissatisfied with Theresa May's leadership, and in fact are trying to help Theresa May
My guess is that the MPs genuinely dissatisfied with May's leadership had either shot their bolt already and had sent in their letters, or were waiting for her failure or betrayal of Brexit to be more apparent before triggering a vote of no-confidence.
Sending in their letters now doesn't really make sense, as everything is still in limbo. May has been pushing, with apparent sincerity, a Brexit plan that is generally not too bad from a Brexiteer point of view, except for the problem of the Northern Irish Backstop.
This is essentially a backup plan to ensure that, in the event of trade negotiations between Britain and the EU breaking down, trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will not be affected by a "hard border." The way in which this would be done would be to automatically keep Northern Ireland (and thus probably the rest of the UK) in the EU Customs Union, while trade discussions continued. This would also mean that Britain's trade would effectively be controlled by Brussels for the duration of the Backstop.
This is supposed to be "merely" a possible and, in that case, a temporary solution to safeguard the Republic of Ireland from Brexit disruption and also "ensure peace" in Northern Ireland. But because of unclear language in the Brexit treaty, which seems to suggests the Backstop could only be ended with the agreement of the EU, Brexiteers view it as a mechanism for the EU to hold Britain indefinitely in a Customs Union and exert leverage on trade negotiations.
May's recent decision to cancel a Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal was caused by concerns over this Backstop arrangement among Conservative Party backbenchers, while her recent trips to Europe were to push the EU and its leaders to clarify that the backstop would not be used in this way.
If she could get this, then there is a possibility that a lot of the Brexiteers in her party would be mollified and view her deal as the "least worst" realistic option. Right now, it is not clear if this is the case. In other words the Brexiteers in her party can't be sure if she has f**ked up on Brexit yet. So, it is too early for them to make their move to replace her as leader.
But also it is too late because the political year will soon stop for Christmas and having a leadership contest, which could take two or three weeks out of the 15 or so weeks before Brexit, would only add to the chaos. Such chaos could also lead to a general election being held smack bang up against the Brexit date of the 29th of March. Conservative MPs generally have disdain for such unruly proceedings and tend to act in a small-C conservative way in such situations.
The only conditions under which a no-confidence vote and a leadership contest would be acceptable to most of them would be if Theresa May's Brexit plan had been decisively defeated by a parliamentary vote, or by a further resounding slap in the face from the EU.
By delaying the parliamentary vote until sometime next year and by keeping alive the slim possibility that the EU will clarify things to the satisfaction of Tory backbenchers, May and her handlers have avoided these two conditions.
And now it looks like they have sent in their own votes to trigger a leadership election at a time of their own choosing, one which, if they win—as I predict they will—should lock her into the leadership position for another full year, a year which promises to be the most important year ever in Britain's post war history. By the end of that year we will have a very clear idea of what their agenda was all along.
