A few weeks ago, I wrote that Trump can’t possibly win re-election. No matter how much pro-Trump spin you put on Tuesday’s election results, they bolster the proposition that Trump can’t possibly win re-election.
Ann Coulter wrote an op-ed that is totally wrong. She blamed the loss in Kentucky on immigration. Massive immigration explains why California went from being the state of Ronald Reagan to a state that Republicans can’t possibly win, but it doesn’t explain why three years ago Kentucky voted for Trump by a huge margin, but this week they voted for a Democratic governor.
Also, the Republican campaigned on being against immigration and against sanctuary cities, which according to Ann Coulter is the right policy for winning elections, but he lost anyway.
A blog commenter says that the Republican guy lost because he was against Medicaid and against teachers’ unions. Maybe. But Trump has been standard Koch-brothers establishment Republican guy on those issues, and the proles still love him.
I believe that people who voted for Trump in 2016 can be divided into three main categories:
What about single-issue anti-immigration voters? I think that there are even fewer of them than single-issue 2nd Amendment voters. A lot fewer of them. Ann Coulter, unfortunately, overestimates their numbers. I think that immigration was a plus factor for Trump, but that Trump led people in category #2 into being in favor of the Wall as much as it was the other way around.
So finally, the election results on Tuesday can be explained by the following two point:
A. People in category #2 don’t turn out in big numbers for Republicans who aren’t Trump.
B. Category #3 has been shrinking for the last two decades, and Trump has hastened this shrinkage because as much as proles love Trump, SWPLs are disgusted by Trump. When the fakestream media talks about those “suburban” voters trending Democratic, even though I am disgusted by how giddy fakestream media people get when they bring up the issue, unfortunately they aren’t entirely wrong.
Also published at Lion of the Blogosphere
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Ann Coulter wrote an op-ed that is totally wrong. She blamed the loss in Kentucky on immigration. Massive immigration explains why California went from being the state of Ronald Reagan to a state that Republicans can’t possibly win, but it doesn’t explain why three years ago Kentucky voted for Trump by a huge margin, but this week they voted for a Democratic governor.
Also, the Republican campaigned on being against immigration and against sanctuary cities, which according to Ann Coulter is the right policy for winning elections, but he lost anyway.
A blog commenter says that the Republican guy lost because he was against Medicaid and against teachers’ unions. Maybe. But Trump has been standard Koch-brothers establishment Republican guy on those issues, and the proles still love him.
I believe that people who voted for Trump in 2016 can be divided into three main categories:
- Single-issue anti-abortion voters. (A bulwark for all Republicans.)
- Voters who love Trump because he’s Trump. These people are predominantly prole whites.
- People who traditionally vote Republican but are not single-issue anti-abortion voters.
What about single-issue anti-immigration voters? I think that there are even fewer of them than single-issue 2nd Amendment voters. A lot fewer of them. Ann Coulter, unfortunately, overestimates their numbers. I think that immigration was a plus factor for Trump, but that Trump led people in category #2 into being in favor of the Wall as much as it was the other way around.
So finally, the election results on Tuesday can be explained by the following two point:
A. People in category #2 don’t turn out in big numbers for Republicans who aren’t Trump.
B. Category #3 has been shrinking for the last two decades, and Trump has hastened this shrinkage because as much as proles love Trump, SWPLs are disgusted by Trump. When the fakestream media talks about those “suburban” voters trending Democratic, even though I am disgusted by how giddy fakestream media people get when they bring up the issue, unfortunately they aren’t entirely wrong.
Also published at Lion of the Blogosphere
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