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Wednesday 2 March 2016

SUPER TRUMPSDAY


The big day has come and gone.

In the run up to this plethora of primaries, the mainstream media pulled out all the stops to derail the Trump Train – we had pointed questions about retweeting quotes from Il Duce, attempts to link Trump to another Duke, and the ubiquitous Hitler comparisons, speaking of which, some Leftists even resorted to disease metaphors reminiscent of Nazi propaganda in their flailing attempts to do the Donald down.

But the MSM isn't what it used to be. Super Tuesday has played out rather well for Der Trumpenfuhrer, with victories in seven states and opposition to him in the Republican field still nicely split between ultimate lightweights Cruz and Rubio.

Even Trump's main disappointment – failing to take Texas from Ted Cruz – can be seen as a good thing. Marco Rubio is clearly the preferred candidate of the GOP establishment and the big bucks are now behind him in the same way they were behind "that loser" Jeb Bush, so Cruz clearly needed something substantial from the results to keep him in the game. Losing his "home" state of Texas could have pushed him down towards Carson and Kasich territory, and made Rubio the only viable anti-Trump candidate. Instead Cruz won Texas and so he remains in the game, a game that increasingly favours Donald.

Even if a lot of Cruz support subsequently goes to Trump, as many analysts suppose, Cruz dropping out at this stage would not have been ideal. This is because the GOP establishment, the Left, and the mainstream media could then have concentrated their fire solely on Trump before he could get a numerical lock-down on the nomination. Thanks to Cruz's two wins, the anti-Trump vote will continue to be split in the next few vital weeks, making it easier for Trump to build and consolidate his lead.

In fact, Cruz winning Texas is so advantageous to Trump that one could even speculate that he threw the state on purpose. Nah! Donald wouldn't do that would he? 

But Cruz's continued candidacy also has other benefits for Trump. It helps to promote the idea that Trump may not be all that bad after all in the minds of GOP establishment types, especially compared to the prospect of a Cruz candidacy. Cruz is just as hard-line on illegal immigration as Trump is – some have said more so – but he is obviously much less of a pragmatist than Trump and not as flexible.

Furthermore, a Trump candidacy actually gives the GOP a much better chance to win the White House, because, unlike all the other GOP candidates, Trump has the potential to turn blue states red, including some major ones like Ohio.

Despite the obvious evidence to the contrary, the GOP establishment like to think of themselves as canny operators and masters of political intrigue. It would doubtless give them great satisfaction to think that they might somehow use a Trump candidacy to achieve their own ends, namely by mobilizing their increasingly alienated voter base, stealing a few blue states, and then stumping Trump. They probably imagine that they could pull off this last feat either by doing a deal with him – many viewing him as a simple charlatan and ego-maniac who would be happy just to be Prez – or, if Trump turns out to be sincere, by preventing his campaign promises in other ways, such as  procedural means and selective opposition in the legislature.

Whether Trump will ultimately dump on the voters who are elevating him to these unprecedented heights or be stumped by cunning political insiders remains to be seen. Both outcomes are not impossible, but the exciting thing about this campaign is that much more positive outcomes are also possible. This is what democracy should feel like, but seldom has.


 

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